26 dezembro 2007

Tio Arruda e os Petralhas

Recentemente, teve fim em Brasília um período de 16 anos de poder do pai Roriz, como é conhecido por alguns membros da comunidade de Samambaia. O PT lutou desesperadamente para sucedê-lo com a indicação de Arlete Sampaio, que apostava em uma divisão de votos entre Arruda e a candidata do Roriz, a que alguns se referem como "Maria Vadia". Arlete, com seu jeito truculento de fazer política, fracassou enquanto pessoas respeitadas pela esquerda ficaram isoladas em seu próprio campo, como Cristóvam Buarque e Augusto Carvalho. Aliás, o Luiz Estevão foi eleito pela insistência desta mulher em querer ser senadora, o que acabou por reduzir os votos de Augusto Carvalho e favorecer o verdadeiro rival. Mas o Senado não perdeu nada; ela seria mais uma Ideli Salvatti.

Roriz foi um grande populista que se elegeu doando lotes para a população de baixa renda enquanto fazia vista grossa para a grilagem de classe media, além de construir um monte de viadutos e gerar muitos negócios como o absurdamente caro e não terminado metrô de Brasília. Como eu dizia a uma amiga de Samambaia, a diferença entre o pai Roriz e o tio Arruda é que o primeiro é um coronelzão do século XIX que transformou a administração em cabide de emprego para seus cabos eleitorais e podia fazer reunião de família reunindo os seus secretários. O Arruda, por outro lado, inaugurou uma gestão que se propôs a sanear a maquina administrativa e a organizar o caos urbano do Distrito Federal.

É portanto com surpresa que lemos no site do PT um artigo da deputada distrital Érika Kokay se vangloriando da suposta baixa popularidade de Arruda. Aliás, esta deputada do PT responde a acusação do ex-empregado do seu gabinete, Geraldo Batista da Rocha Junior, de tê-lo usado como laranja do caixa 2 da campanha. Em suas palavras, a Erika diz:

“Os cortes no custeio da máquina pública, a demissão de servidores e a derrubada de barracos, longe de expressar austeridade fiscal ou rigor na aplicação da lei, desnudou a política privatista neoliberal do governo do Distrito Federal que minimiza o papel do Estado na condução das políticas públicas e valoriza, sobretudo, o papel do mercado na solução dos problemas econômicos e sociais. A confiança inicial do governador vem sendo substituída por preocupação ao ponto de assinar decreto "demitindo" o gerúndio dos atos oficiais, motivo de piada nacional, segundo a Folha de São Paulo.”

Esta Erika mostra seus preconceitos ideológicos decorrentes do pertencimento ao ramo estatista da esquerda. Esquece de dizer que a demissão de servidores não concursados, muitos dos quais cabos eleitorais ou decorrentes de clientelismo, foi uma medida necessária e benéfica para a população, que a derrubada de barracos também é necessária pois existem pessoas na fila para receber os lotes de acordo com critérios estabelecidos, e as áreas verdes da cidade não podem ser privatizadas por qualquer um. E quanto à privatização do BRB, é uma excelente idéia, considerando que recentemente o pai Roriz perdeu o mandato de senador por uma pequena maracutaia descoberta nas dependências deste banco. Como sindicalista da CEF deve ser impossível a ela defender esta posição.

Quem gosta de máquina administrativa inchada para colocar os companheiros do partido é o pai Roriz, ou então o PT, que precisa encostar os seus companheiros. É mesmo lamentável entrar no site da Erika e encontrar como mote a frase: “uma mulher de coragem”. Cá entre nós, a foto desta psicóloga dirigente nacional do PT lembra mesmo é a Rita Cadillac. Se bem que a Rita tem mais dignidade.

Foto: O Globo, melhorada pelo Pugnacitas. Aqui a imagem original.

11 comentários:

André disse...

Legal seu post, Heitor.

Já conheci muita gente aqui em Brasília (a maioria, claro, jecas, mas nem todos) q adorava o Roriz por motivos estritamente pessoais. P. ex., gente q mora mais para o final do Lago Sul e que, por causa da 3ª ponte feita por lá, acha ele o máximo.

Muitos também q ganharam emprego no GDF, “benção” do Pai Roriz — e nada como um carguinho em comissão para operar milagres na percepção que certas pessoas têm dos políticos. Os políticos que as empregam, ao menos.

Arlete Sampaio... Nossa, o PT em Brasília é mesmo um circo de aberrações. Wasny de Roure, um invertebrado, Magela, o ex-petista Cristovam Buarque...

“Mas o Senado não perdeu nada, iria ser mais uma Ideli Salvatti.”

É isso aí.

Roriz favelizou Brasília. O aumento da miséria e, conseqüentemente, da criminalidade, e por aí vai...

A grilagem de classe-média (a tediosa novela dos “condomínios irregulares”), também...

Aliás, ele só prestou para fazer grandes obras viárias: a ponte, alargamentos de pista, viadutos, etc. Mas isso não era mais do que a obrigação dele, claro.

Apesar das críticas que ouço, acho q o Arruda está sendo bom. Está limpando como pode a sujeira de quase duas décadas, pondo ordem nas contas públicas, já acabou com algumas farras, como a dos imóveis ociosos q o GDF mantinha alugados e tantas outras. Daí sua baixa popularidade, vi numa pesquisa. Só 38%, nas classes A e B (devem ser os ricos, meio-ricos e remediados, he, he) acham ele ótimo ou bom. A malta não gosta dele. Pararam as distribuições de comida e leitinho de soja, por falar nisso?

“política privatista" do governo, quem me dera fosse assim.

Essa da demissão do gerúndio foi idiota, infantil. Suas freqüentes aparições com “namoradinhas” também. Ok, todo mundo sabe q ele é mulherengo. Mas poderia ao menos ser discreto.

Pena que o Arruda não pode fechar a Câmara Legislativa. Se os presos da Papuda e as prostitutas e travestis do Conic fossem postos pra trabalhar no lugar dos distritais, daria na mesma.

Já uma Rita Cadillac lá dentro, nossa, esse seria um avanço sem precedentes. Melhoraria muito aquilo ali. Mas ela provavelmente é uma pessoa honesta, não se prestaria a isso, ser “deputada distrital” (vereadora do cerrado).

André disse...

A melhor foto do site até agora, será?

Hummm… mataram a Benazir. Ela era legal, ainda q de uma família tradicional — tradicionalmente corrupta, he, he. Podre de rica. Também, pra viver exilada com aquele estilo em Londres. Eu adoraria viver exilado daquele jeito. Pena q ninguém quer me expulsar para um exílio daqueles. Mas ela era legal, muçulmana moderada, e bonita. Muito chique também, tinha a maior classe. Ah, e o inglês dela era quase perfeito, vi numa entevista. Atiraram nela, uma bala acertou no pescoço, enquanto outro cara vestindo explosivos se aproximou. Que merda... mas ela escapou de uma igual a essa em 18 de outubro e, claro, sabia dos riscos. Faz pouco tempo q conseguiu voltar pro país dela. E ainda teve uma época em q passou 5 anos em prisão domiciliar no Paquistão, depois de se meter com os militares, q são a única instituição q mantém o país mais ou menos em ordem, unido. Não foi fácil ficar presa, mesmo pra ela, q era cheia de admiradores e tinha muito dinheiro. Parece até q passou necessidade.

Pakistan: Security Aspects of the Bhutto Killing

Information is beginning to emerge about security aspects of the Dec. 27 killing of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

Information is beginning to emerge about security aspects of the Dec. 27 killing of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Apparently, Bhutto’s killers struck as she passed through a crowd and a gate on her way to her motorcade after addressing a rally in Rawalpindi, Pakistan. At such a time her security detail, which would have been preoccupied about the event itself, might have let down its guard in relief that it had made it through the event — only to get hit on the way to the car.

The perpetrators knew Bhutto needed to get to her car after the speech, making that a good chokepoint for a strike. She might have been isolated from the crowd while on the stage to give her speech, but she had to pass through the adoring crowd to get to the motorcade. The security team apparently did not secure the entire route required to get to the cars. In many respects, the attack is similar to the 1995 killing of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was shot after a political rally on the way out to his car.

Pakistan: Security Implications of Bhutto's Death

Pakistan’s leading opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was in a suicide blast as she was leaving a rally of her Pakistan People’s Party in the city of Rawalpindi, near the capital Islamabad. Witnesses said a man rushed toward Bhutto’s Jeep after she made a speech to thousands of supporters and blew himself up. The bomber’s head was reportedly found nearly 70 feet from the site of the blast. Five gun shots were also fired at her car, with one shot hitting Bhutto in her neck.

Angry mobs are currently outside the hospital where Bhutto was treated in Rawalpindi. Bhutto’s supporters are chanting slogans, calling Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf a dog. Riots are also being reported throughout the country.

This is the second major attack against Bhutto in recent months. She came within inches of being killed Oct. 18 in a procession where her motorcade was targeted by a suicide blast. Slow-moving processions and large public demonstrations put Bhutto at an extremely high risk of being targeted, regardless of how many thousands of security personnel were deployed to protect her. It is virtually impossible for security people to monitor that many people in an unscreened crowd.

Pakistan’s vibrant jihadist factions have been actively seeking to kill Bhutto and further destabilize the Pakistani regime. The nexus between Pakistan’s intelligence agencies and these jihadist groups is murky, and the security apparatus in Pakistan is known to be vulnerable to infiltration by Islamist militants. Regardless of the perpetrator, blame will likely be cast upon the Musharraf regime for Bhutto’s death, spelling trouble for the future stability of the Pakistani government.

Musharraf now has the opportunity to reconsolidate control, impose martial law and postpone general elections slated for Jan. 8. However, funeral processions and deaths of high-profile figures, particularly in South Asia, have a high potential to turn violent. Large street demonstrations by Bhutto supporters have already begun and are likely to intensify in the coming days, creating an even more precarious security situation for the jihadists to take advantage of.

Though Pakistan’s security forces were able to impose some degree of control when Musharraf last imposed emergency rule Nov. 3-Dec. 15, the coming instability will require a much larger security presence on the street. The more troops that need to be diverted to Pakistan’s major cities, Islamabad, Karachi and Lahore, in containing these demonstrations, the more risk there will be in Pakistan’s tribal areas where the insurgency could go unfettered as militants return to their safe havens for the winter months.

Pakistan: Bhutto's Assassination

Top Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated Dec 27. Reports of rioting and arson are coming in from all across the country, with most of the unrest occurring in the Sindh and Punjab provinces.

Bhutto’s death eliminates the largest opposition figure in the country. Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has a presence in all four provinces in Pakistan. Her death is also is a major blow to the PPP, which the Bhutto dynasty has led since the party’s inception in 1966. No one in the dynasty is ready to step in to take the PPP reins. Thus, the party is now likely to weaken, and with every other party only being strong in one or (at best) two provinces, political fragmentation is likely to follow. Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistani Muslim League-Nawaz is the next largest party; other parties are very small and region-specific. The crisis of governance currently seen in Pakistan’s Pashtun areas could spread to other parts of the country and lead to clashes between groups.

Bhutto’s absence gives the establishment forces an opportunity to strengthen their hold on power. But it is unlikely that the establishment will reap any benefits; Bhutto’s death will exponentially exacerbate the existing state of political unrest because the blame will fall on Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s regime.

This situation benefits the Taliban and al Qaeda and their supporters who would want Pakistan’s security forces to be busy containing political unrest and violence rather than performing counter-jihadist operations focused on northwestern Pakistan. The unrest could reach a point at which army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani steps in and imposes martial law. Unless Kayani is able to work out an arrangement with civilian groups, martial law could complicate the situation.

Pakistan: Bhutto Killed in Suicide Blast

Former Pakistani Prime Minister and opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.Top Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was killed Dec. 27 in a suicide bombing. A suicide bomber struck Bhutto’s motorcade as she was leaving a rally of her Pakistan People’s Party in the city of Rawalpindi, near the capital Islamabad. Bhutto’s car was hit three or four times by gunfire before the bomber detonated.

Given the modus operandi, it is likely the work of jihadists linked with the Taliban and/or al Qaeda. This assassination could not have been possible without the jihadists being enabled by elements within the government because both the jihadists and many within the regime fear the possibility of Bhutto‘s party emerging strong in the Jan. 8 polls. This attack further highlights the murky links between Islamist militants and elements within the Pakistani security/intelligence establishment.

Bhutto’s death will trigger a serious backlash in the form of violence and unrest in the country, which could derail the polls, which the opposition is claiming will be rigged by the establishment. The unrest and violence following her death could also lead to the imposition of martial law.

Heitor Abranches disse...

Pois é André,

Que coisa mais complicada. Confesso que fiquei triste quando soube da morte da Benazir.
Entretanto, näo acho saudável estas dinastias no poder.
Outro dia, conversando com um amigo marxista, ele dizia que o capitalismo é mau porque tende a concentrar a riqueza. Daí, eu perguntei qual seria a alternativa? Dar todo poder aos políticos ligado ao Estado? Por que o poder político é naturalmente conservador. Talvez, meu amigo, isto que conhecemos como sociedade aberta seja o resultado de um choque dialético entre as elites e a lógica capitalista e as elites do estado, tipicamente esquerdistas. Caso contrário, caímos no fosso de uma sociedade estilo oriental dominada ora por militares, ora por dinastias, ora por extremistas religiosos...

Heitor Abranches disse...

Esta discussao de assassinato político é interessante também. O problema dos assassinatos políticos é que eles promovem uma reaçao do lado assassinado no sentido de promover lideranças mais aptas a lidar com um ambiente destes. E do seu lado, também há uma promoçáo destas figuras que ganham importäncia, portanto, é uma boa estratégia para militares que estáo preparados para reaçóes violentas mas náo é uma boa estratégia para civis. Portanto, cuidado com militares no poder porque para eles o assassinato é uma estratégia menos arriscada do que para outros. É por isto, que náo que creio que o Chavez deixe o poder na Venezuela. Só morto.

Heitor Abranches disse...

O PSDB que fique esperto...Ele é um partido muito menos organico que o PT...Se vc matar a liderança petista ela é rapidamente substituída por uma boa galera que está na fila e nas panelas dos sindicatos. No PSDB é diferente, como é um partido de elite, se vc matar uma meia dúzia vc matar o partido...Vejamos se vc matasse o Serra, o Aécio e o Tasso...Näo vejo substitutos. Do lado do PT, se vc matar o Lula, a maquina do PT hj tem forca para se renovar e manter o poder.

Bocage disse...

Ad for a Dutch fireworks company

André disse...

Achoq se o Lula morresse hoje, isso seria péssimo para o PT. Ele ainda é muito dependente da imagem do Lula. Se isso mudar, pior pra gente...

É, a coisa está feia mesmo:

The Dec. 27 assassination of top Pakistani opposition leader and two-time former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has triggered a massive wave of rioting by activists from her Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) across the country.
The million dollar question is whether Pakistani authorities can contain the unrest — and, if so, how quickly. The answer has to do with the architecture of rioting in the country. For now, most of the rioting is in its early stages, is unorganized and stems from immediate reactions of anger and anguish at Bhutto’s assassination.
But there are early signs that opposition forces are gearing up to take advantage of the post-assassination unrest and oust President Pervez Musharraf. Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) who after Bhutto’s death has emerged as the main opposition leader, has called for Musharraf to step down and has announced his party will boycott the Jan. 8 polls. Meanwhile, the Islamist Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), which is known to be the best organized political force in the country despite its small size and following, has called for a nationwide strike on Dec. 28 protesting the killing of Bhutto.
Should PML-N and JI team up with the PPP, which is currently in a state of paralysis because of its leader’s death, the three parties can provide leadership and the needed machinations to whip up a sustained protest campaign. Their goal would be to make demonstrations and rioting last so long and be so widespread that the army, led by Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, steps in and removes Musharraf from power.
For that to happen, these three parties would have to coordinate unrest so that it can take place in all major parts of the country and draw in other political forces such as the largest Islamist party, Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam of Maulana Fazl ur Rehman, the secular Pahstun nationalist Awami National Party (ANP), and especially the Mutahiddah Qaumi Movement (MQM), whose stronghold is the urban areas of Sindh (particularly the port city of Karachi).
The extent to which a party can actually manage demonstrations obviously depends upon the state of its organizational structure in a given area and how well-oiled its street machine is. The PPP to a certain degree has good organizational structure and a good ability to move people to the streets, but it now lacks a central leader who can lead the party to a full-on campaign. Sharif’s PML has a major grassroots following in Punjab but lacks the organizational structure. The JI lacks the grassroots support but has the street machine to pull of successful demos.
The PML-N and JI have collaborated in the past and will likely do so again, now that Sharif has joined JI and other smaller parties in boycotting the polls. Should there be a collaboration of sorts among the PPP, PML-N and the JI, massive unrest for a protracted period of time is very likely. JI’s student wing, Islami Jamiat-i-Talaba (IJT), plays the main role in any such street campaigns, and they have over the decades during many campaigns gained valuable skills in the art of street agitation.
JI has the local- and regional-level leadership to lead and manage the protests. On its own it has not been able to do much but it has been a driving force in campaigns involving multiple parties. One of the key things in any successful protest is to manage human resources so that most of them protest during the day and take respite at night. Depending on area and bandwidth, separate riot teams are sometimes deployed in certain areas at night.
It will be critical to watch for an alignment of political forces — especially the PPP, JI and PML-N — in the day ahead, as that alignment will determine the trajectory of the unrest.

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India will be watching events in Pakistan warily following the killing of top Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto on Dec. 27. New Delhi’s fears chiefly relate to concerns about a jihadist spillover effect.
India will be watching developments in Pakistan closely following the assassination of top Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto. Like the United States, India’s primary concern is that the Pakistani nuclear arsenal remain firmly in the military’s hands. Any sign of a Pakistani military disintegration would bring New Delhi and Washington together to work out an intervention plan. Such a scenario is highly unlikely at this point, however, since the Pakistani military is holding itself together.
But India has a longer-term concern in mind as well. India already has been dealing with its own Islamist militancy problem, and is fearful of a larger jihadist spillover from its border with Pakistan. India’s Kashmiri Islamist groups have already become heavily influenced by jihadist forces in the Vale of Kashmir, and al Qaeda propaganda has spread throughout India, particularly in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, where Islamist militants have focused their attacks on stirring up communal tensions between Hindus and Muslims.
India also faces an increased threat of Islamist militant traffic coming in from its northeastern border with Bangladesh, where jihadist influence has taken root. These militant groups have taken notice of the main opposition Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party’s victory in the recent state elections in Gujarat, where India witnessed some of its most violent Hindu-Muslim riots in 2002 under Narendra Modi, the re-elected chief minister. With Hindu nationalist sentiment on the rise, Islamist militants in India have a greater opportunity to trigger riots, mainly by targeting sensitive religious sites. And the more freedom jihadists gain in Pakistan by further destabilizing the security situation there, the more assistance India’s militant cells will receive in carrying out their own violent campaign in major Indian cities.

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After the Dec. 27 assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, the most important issue for Pakistan is the cohesion of the military — the most powerful and influential national organization in the country.

Analysis
The single most important question right now for Pakistan is the cohesion of the armed forces. For the United States, the political personalities in Islambad are largely interchangeable, but the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and the overall stability of the country lie firmly in the hands of the Pakistani military.

The Pakistani military is the most powerful, organized and influential national institution in the country. The jihadist factions in Pakistan have strategically taken advantage of the political instability that has swept Pakistan over the past 10 months and clearly intend to use Benazir Bhutto’s Dec. 27 assassination to destabilize the regime and attempt to break apart the military at the seams.

For now, it does not look as though the military will fracture over the Bhutto assassination. Riots have already spread through the cities of Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Hyderabad, Lahore, Karachi, Gizri, Lyari, Nazimabad, Sukkur, Mirpukhas, Shikarpur, Peshawar and Quetta with Bhutto supporters leading the demonstrations. Members of Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) are reportedly torching police stations, gas stations, vehicles and banners of rival political parties in major cities. Pakistani police are currently attempting to contain the situation, and paramilitary forces, known as the Rangers, will soon likely be deployed to the streets.


Rumors are circulating that martial law could be imposed if the paramilitary forces are unable to restore order and the riots spiral out of control. However, putting the army out on the streets carries significant risks. Current Army Chief Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani recognizes the risk in drawing public ire against the army when the Jan. 8 elections are already likely to be postponed. In the military’s mind the question is how to seal the breaches in a revamped political system; the original plan was to use Bhutto to co-opt a major opposition force in the government. However, imposing martial law would only exacerbate the breaches, because those rioting in the streets are the ones who have already objected to military rule in principle.

The riots could intensify in the short term, given the political sensitivities in play. In South Asia, the death of any high-profile figure can easily turn into a violent affair, particularly during the funeral procession. PPP attacks against rival political parties could also escalate rapidly, and follow-on jihadist attacks could occur to further destabilize the country. If the security situation deteriorates significantly, military forces could be deployed to the most volatile areas short of imposing martial law. With a beefed up security presence, Pakistan’s military apparatus likely has the capability to restore order in the short term.

In the long term, however, the military is still in need of a political settlement. For that to happen, the PPP needs a new leader, and it is questionable whether Bhutto’s yet-to-be-determined successor will be able to carry the party through the crisis and prevent further fragmentation among the opposition forces.

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf may also be eyeing the current situation as an opportunity to reconsolidate power and reassert himself in the name of restoring national order. If steps toward martial law are taken, any attempt by Musharraf to reinsert himself into the military apparatus would cause a major uproar among the military’s top brass and threaten the stability of the regime. A wildfire of anti-Musharraf sentiment is already spreading, fueled by allegations of Musharraf’s and the army’s complicity in the Bhutto assassination. The Musharraf stigma may become too much for Kayani to handle, especially if Musharraf makes any bold moves to come back onto the military scene. If steps are taken to sideline the Pakistani president for good, the military may have to deal with some internal frictions once the line is drawn in the sand. However, Musharraf sans military uniform does not hold much sway and no longer holds the keys to the generals’ economic well-being. Kayani would likely have the cards to bring the core army leadership into line in such a scenario.


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A source in Karachi, Pakistan, told Stratfor on Dec. 27 that everything in the city has shut down in the wake of opposition leader and former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. Cars reportedly are on fire all over the city, even in the quiet residential areas where such events normally do not occur. Even journalists in Karachi are staying off the streets, and people have had to abandon their cars and walk home because of the burning cars in the streets. The source was not aware of any military presence in the streets of the city.
The source added that rumors are flying about a civil war in Pakistan; some Sindhis in the town of Sheikhapura have been shouting in the streets, calling for separation from Pakistan.

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Reports of violent rioting and arson are coming from the Pakistani cities of Karachi, Rawalpindi, Islamabad and Sindh — as well as from Balochistan province in Quetta — on Dec. 27. Demonstrations led by supporters of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) are likely to intensify in the coming days.
There are no reports thus far on Western business being targeted. PPP demonstrators are unlikely to single out Western targets in attacks, but Western companies could still end up in the line of fire as protests spiral out of control. During the February 2006 protests over the cartoons that satirized the Prophet Mohammed, the British, French and Indian embassies were stoned, along with a Pizza Hut, Holiday Inn, McDonald’s and Norwegian cell phone company Telenor. Though physical security measures such as concrete barriers, standoff distances and security cameras better equip companies to deal with these threats, mobs can still overrun buildings.
PPP workers are also now attacking rival parties, which could spur a violent reaction from Pakistan’s Islamist parties, who would have a stronger interest in attacking Western facilities.
The best precaution for Western companies is to close down if demonstrations are likely to take place near their facilities. Companies need to keep tabs on where demonstrations are occurring in order to evacuate employees with as much advance notice as possible. Particular attention should be paid to details on Bhutto’s funeral procession, which will likely develop into a chaotic and violent affair. Bhutto’s procession could take place in Larkana, her ancestral hometown in central Sindh.

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When Mobs Attack Multinationals Abroad: The Best Advice is -- Run

Some 600 demonstrators stormed a foreign diplomatic enclave in Pakistan’s capital of Islamabad on Feb. 14 in protest of cartoons printed in Western Europe that satirize the Prophet Mohammed. On the same day, protesters in the eastern city of Lahore vandalized Western businesses, burning some and breaking windows in others. Although certain security measures can be taken to reduce the risk of terrorist attacks against multinational corporations abroad — or the severity of such attacks — little can be done to defend property against a violent mob.
Protests over the cartoons of Mohammed have been occurring every few days in Pakistan and other Muslim countries since early February. In general, most of the protests have been loud but nonviolent, with flag- and effigy-burning being the extent of the destruction. In recent days, however, protests in Pakistan have grown angrier.
On Feb. 13 in Peshawar, Pakistani police fired tear gas into a crowd of about 5,000 protesting students who damaged storefronts and smashed windows in local businesses, apparently focusing on businesses that displayed Western products. In the Feb. 14 Islamabad protest, a handful of police stood by as the crowd forced its way into the fenced-in diplomatic enclave and marched toward the British, French and Indian embassies. The protesters threw stones at the embassies and a bank until police reinforcements arrived and expelled them with tear gas and water cannons.
The worst violence occurred in Lahore, about 180 miles southeast of Islamabad, where a rampaging mob burned down four buildings housing the four-star Ambassador Hotel, two banks, a KFC restaurant franchise and the regional office of Telenor, a Norwegian cell phone company. The protesters also damaged about 200 cars and several storefronts, and threw stones through the windows of a McDonald’s restaurant, a Pizza Hut and the Holiday Inn hotel. At the Holiday Inn, the crowd raged outside for three hours, but did not enter the hotel, the staff said. Guests were able to go about their business in conference rooms, but they did not venture outside.
Physical security measures such as concrete barriers, stand-off distances and security cameras can add to a facility’s defenses against a terrorist attack, but they can do little to prevent an angry mob from overrunning a property. The protesters can scale barriers, while their overwhelming numbers can render most security details helpless. If they set fire to the building, as happened at the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad in 1979, a safe-room can become a death trap. If a mob storms a hotel, the local staff might be unable to protect the guests, and conceivably could leave them to fend for themselves in the confusion and chaos of a riot.
Once a mob attacks, there often is little that can be done. At that point, the focus should be on preventing injuries and saving lives — without regard to the physical property. In most cases, when a mob attacks a multinational, it is attacking a symbol of the West. KFC restaurants, for example, have been frequent targets of attacks in Pakistan because of the company’s association with the United States.
Telenor, which has offices in Karachi, Islamabad and Lahore, likely was targeted because it is from Norway, one of the countries where the offensive cartoons were printed. During the riot in Peshawar, a Telenor outlet store was ransacked and looted. The company has 11 Norwegian employees in Pakistan, and said it has no current plan to take them out of the country.
Multinational franchises such as KFC and Telenor usually are owned by locals. When a franchise is burned down, it is the local owner and not the multinational that suffers the loss. In some cases — Syria, for example — governments have not tried to stop protesters from attacking a Western embassy for fear the protesters would turn their wrath on their home government. Furthermore, local security agencies sometimes are not motivated to protect small, locally owned businesses during a spree of violence.
When a seemingly innocuous issue such as cartoons spirals into violent protests, the only precaution that many companies can take is to escape. This works best when the protest is confined to one area — as opposed to a major citywide riot — and appears that it will die out in several hours. The best defense is to utilize good intelligence so as to know about the protests in advance. Only in this way can facilities be secured and employees evacuated in time. Once a protest begins, it should be tracked so that contingency plans can be enacted if the angry mob begins to move toward the facility.

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The killing of top Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto has triggered a storm of political unrest in the South Asian country. For now, Pakistan People’s Party activists are the ones engaged in rioting and arson against facilities of government and rival parties in the two main provinces of Punjab and Sindh. But soon this violence could lead to clashes between various groups. The situation already is getting out of hand for the police, and it is likely that paramilitary and military forces will be called in to quell the growing disturbances.
As the guarantor of state stability, all eyes are going to be on the Pakistani military to see how quickly it can contain the fallout from Bhutto’s death. Given that the country was already going through a period of significant instability coupled with the unprecedented jihadist insurgency, questions remain about whether the army will be able to gain control of the situation quickly. Bhutto’s death creates a major vacuum in Pakistan, and will make it difficult to stabilize the situation since her Pakistan People’s Party, which is the only true national-level party, is going to weaken without her. This will lead to a fragmentation of the political landscape and by extension the country.
The Pakistani military is strong and large, and eventually will take care of the situation. It can make a strong showing in the major cities, especially in Punjab. Even so, stout resistance from an urban population is a very challenging thing.
It is highly unlikely that elections can be held any time soon, and the imposition of martial law is also a distinct possibility because that will give the army direct control of the situation. Meanwhile, the double polarization of the country — where Islamist forces are struggling with mainstream ones on one hand and the pro-democracy forces are competing with authoritarianism on the other — will further complicate matters if the army takes direct control of the situation.
Depending on how rapidly the situation deteriorates, army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani could step in and take charge. But he will have to tread carefully and work with an array of civilian forces because direct military rule could worsen the situation. There is also the potential for Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, who could see Bhutto’s death as an opportunity, to reinsert himself in a new military junta. Either way, a cooling-off period will be required before stabilization can be achieved.

André disse...

A Description of the Ground Reality in Karachi

A Stratfor source in Karachi, Pakistan, sent an e-mail Dec. 27 describing the situation on the ground after the assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto. The source described the situation in Karachi as

“… bad. Pretty bad”

and wrote:

No one will be leaving their houses for the next three days.

Work and schools are all closed and I’m sure shops will sporadically open and close.

My sister was out at a mall when it happened. She said the lights went out and this man came running in yelling, “Benazir is dead! Go home!!”

My sister in law was stuck in traffic for four hours.

My brother said that he left his car and started walking when he found a truck repair shop of some kind. He went inside and found four people hiding out before the riots started.

Half an hour later the rioters came. They jumped on cars and started burning them, yelling “switch off the lights of this car!” People left their cars on the street. He saw them light the cars on fire and run around.

No one was hurt, shot or killed. It was mostly just burning and yelling. He managed to get back to his car, which was fine and head back to work, which was closer than home. He is spending the night there before he comes home in the morning.

His friend was not so lucky. His father and he left their car to see it get burned and then ended up at an army camp where they were safe.

Besides this “army camp” no one has heard of police on the streets. As I watched, from my terrace, cars burning down the street from my house, I saw no police. And usually, since I live on the main street, there is always police stopping cars and regulating traffic. It was deserted as the cars burned.

Its 12:18 a.m. now so things have died down. We’re waiting to see what happens in the morning.

This is the worst thing and the worst time for something like this to happen.

This is the happiest month in Pakistan. Eid, Christmas, holidays when people come back home, and weddings.

My friend’s reception was canceled today, two family friend’s weddings and my neighbors henna party, a time when we get together and dance. …

We have moments of peace until something crazy happens again. But this...

Benazir was an icon in Pakistan. One people hated and loved.
Karachi was her city. And for this to happen, so close to the elections … we’re in for a rough few weeks.

André disse...

Benazir Bhutto, leader of Pakistan’s largest political party and the country’s former two-time prime minister, was assassinated on Thursday. Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) could have emerged as the largest party in parliament in the Jan. 8 elections. She was one of the three pillars of the government the United States was working to put together in its efforts to stabilize Islamabad.

The U.S. efforts are geared toward getting Pakistan back on track in its role as a frontline state in the fight against jihadists. Washington was hoping Bhutto would work out a power-sharing agreement with President Pervez Musharraf and that they, along with new army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, would form a civil-military regime made up of moderate forces that could effectively combat rising extremism and terrorism in the country. Though this was not an outright solution, it had the potential to be the starting point for other solutions. Not that this would have been an effective alignment of forces, but it was the best option given the circumstances.

From the U.S. viewpoint, stability in Pakistan is important because the country plays a critical role in U.S.-NATO efforts to combat the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. Futhermore, over the last five years Pakistan has emerged as the global headquarters of al Qaeda. The United States realized that Musharraf on his own is unable to deal with a growing crisis of governance in the country, much less with Islamist militancy. The solution was to bring Bhutto’s PPP into the system in order to stabilize it.

Of the three key pillars of the U.S. plan for restoring political stability in Pakistan, the only one not already in place was eliminated by Bhutto’s assassination, and it is likely the hardest to replace. This is a victory for the jihadists, who require that Pakistan descend into chaos — a condition that allows them to flourish. Bhutto’s death not only eliminates a potentially serious threat to the jihadists but also creates an opportunity for them.

This raises the question of whether there is an alternative plan to ensure the country does not become an arena for extremists to thrive in. Obviously the first order of business is to contain the unrest, which is the fallout from Bhutto’s killing. This task will be extremely difficult, to say the least.

Ultimately once the dust of unrest settles, the country’s military establishment and the United States will need an alternative civilian leader to work with. Any election that is free and fair, whenever it is held, could result in a PPP majority, especially now that the party will receive the sympathy vote because of Bhutto’s death. But a PPP sans Bhutto (the party since its founding in the late 1960s has always been led by a Bhutto) is facing a crisis of leadership.

In the meantime, Nawaz Sharif, another former two-time prime minister and one who was ousted from power by Musharraf, will try to emerge as the country’s main political leader. But Sharif’s problem is that his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz is mostly limited to the province of Punjab, and is therefore a much smaller political force than the PPP. What we are looking at is an increasing fragmentation of the Pakistani political landscape.
Bhutto’s death has created a challenge for the United States in that it no longer has a coherent political force that could act as a partner in its efforts to contain extremism and terrorism. All eyes are now on the Pakistani military. The question is whether it can reach a modus vivendi with the country’s sundry political forces and steer the country away from political chaos and religious militancy.

Ricardo Rayol disse...

quando diz que o estado tem que abraçar as politicas publicas e privadas vc mata a argumentação idiota do PT. O Roriz é o que vc disse, coronel à moda antiga e assim caminha esta merda de país. Tenha certeza que isso aí se reproduz em vários rincões.

André disse...

A day after the assassination of Pakistan’s former Prime Minister, Benazir Bhutto, the precise details of the attack are still murky, but the picture of what happened is clearer than it was yesterday.

First of all, reports from knowledgeable sources now indicate that Bhutto died from head trauma caused either by the explosive device or by striking her head on the hatch of her vehicle and not from bullet wounds, as previously reported.

This is an important distinction, because the set of skills and level of training required to accurately shoot at a moving target through a heavy crowd while being jostled — and successfully hit that target with multiple rounds — is very different from the skill set required to merely push the button on a suicide vest. The former scenario requires a far higher level of professionalism than the latter.

Indeed, if these newer reports are accurate, they would indicate that the attack that took Bhutto’s life was not all that different in concept or skill level from the Oct. 18 attempt on her life. This would reinforce the theory that a militant Islamist group was responsible for her death and lend credence to the purported al Qaeda statement claiming responsibility for Bhutto’s death.

The attempt to assassinate Bhutto really came as no surprise. Bhutto and her party had received many threats and warnings, and many of these had even been made publicly. Of course the Oct. 18 suicide attack against her slow-moving procession upon her return to Pakistan was in many ways the loudest warning of all, though Stratfor had received reports from people close to Bhutto that there had been several other attempts since then that had been foiled by her security team.

Given this general atmosphere, it is interesting to note the ways the operation that succeeded in assassinating Bhutto was greatly aided by the actions of the politician, her followers and her security team. First, given that it was a political necessity for Bhutto to attend the rally at the Liaqat Bagh Park, her security team should have been on its toes, since her presence gave the people who wanted to kill her a set place and time to act. They knew where she was going to be and when. Second, the physical layout of the park itself ensured that there were only a limited number of entrances to the facility.

These entrances served as choke points; Bhutto had to pass through one of them to enter and exit the park. It is not known if Bhutto’s motorcade used the same entrance to enter and exit, but chances are that it did enter and exit via the back gate — especially given the throng of people who attended the rally and who likely jammed the main entrance road. It is also probable that every VIP who visits that park uses the back entrance gate.

This is where protective intelligence would have been particularly useful in identifying the potential hazards presented by the chokepoint of the rear gate, causing the executive protection team to pay particular attention to that spot. Security officers traditionally like to do two things when faced with a choke point they must traverse: control it and monitor activity there and get through it as quickly as possible. In the Bhutto case, neither of these was done.

The area around the rear gate was not controlled; it can be seen in photos taken right before the attack that Bhutto’s supporters clogged the road at that point, forcing the executive protection team to dismount from their vehicles and “run the fenders” in an effort to keep people off Bhutto’s vehicle and attempt to clear the way in front of the vehicle so that it could move forward.

It is important to remember that there is no such thing as a bomb-and-bullet-proof vehicle. Even main battle tanks are vulnerable to mines, rockets and improvised explosive devices. Because of this, it is very important for protective motorcades to keep moving; they are vulnerable when they are stationary or barely moving, as Bhutto’s motorcade was as it left the park’s back entrance. During this very vulnerable time, Bhutto did something that is unimaginable from a security officer’s viewpoint: she opened the sunroof of the vehicle and stood up to wave to the crowd. This act not only breached the relative safety of the armored vehicle and provided a place into which a grenade or Molotov cocktail could be tossed, but also exposed her head and most of her torso.

The suicide device that was used against Bhutto does not appear to have been very large, but from the photos of the damage done to the vehicles in the motorcade and to the wounded and killed security officers and bystanders, it does appear to have been packed with shrapnel resembling ball bearings. It also does not appear that the device was detonated in intimate contact with her vehicle, or that her vehicle — which was used to transport her to the hospital — was badly damaged by the blast. Indeed, whether Bhutto was killed by shrapnel or by striking her head on the hatch of her vehicle, had she kept her head and torso completely inside the vehicle, she very well might have survived this attempt as she did the last.

We do not know why Bhutto’s security team allowed her to expose herself at such a particularly vulnerable point in time and space, or if they even objected to her decision to do so, but it is very likely that in the end, political considerations and personal preference trumped security concerns, and it was these political considerations that contributed greatly to Bhutto’s death.

It is an unfortunate fact that in the security business, security officers are frequently ignored — and often fired — by powerful and strong-willed individuals who fail to heed their security advice. Frankly, some protectees live in a state of denial and are slow to acknowledge that anyone would want to harm them. This fact is even more pronounced in developing countries where security officers tend to be poorly trained, hail from the lower class and are generally not well regarded by society or even their protectees. In many cases, even when security officers have the training and background to realize something is dangerous they can be powerless to stop their protectee from making a fatal error.

The circumstances surrounding Bhutto’s death could also have been complicated by the actions of her security team if — and this is a big if — a member of the team grabbed her and forced her down into the vehicle after shots were fired. It could have been this action that resulted in her hitting her head on the hatch and not the force of the explosion. It will therefore be most interesting to keep an eye on the investigation surrounding this death in an attempt to further clarify the chain of fatal factors that led to Bhutto’s assassination.

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